Conventional production, oil sands projects underpin strong crude oil forecast

abarrelfullabarrelfull wrote on 06 Jun 2012 19:32
Tags: canada upstream

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Canadian crude oil production will more than double to 6.2 million barrels per day by 2030 from three million barrels per day in 2011, according to CAPP’s 2012 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Pipelines Outlook.

“Resurging growth in Western Canadian conventional oil production and new oil sands investments are driving the positive outlook,” said Greg Stringham, vice-president, markets and oil sands. “Canadian oil is clearly on the global stage and this forecast growth will put Canada in the top three or four oil producers in the world.”

Conventional production is increasing because new technology allows industry to produce oil from formerly uneconomic resources, reversing a significant declining production trend over the last decade. Oil sands growth reflects Canada’s supply potential and growing international demand for oil.

2012 Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast (million b/d)

2011 Actual 2015 2020 2025 2030
Western Canada
Conventional 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1
Oil Sands 1.6 2.3 3.1 4.2 5.0
Eastern Canada 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Total Canadian 3.0 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.2

The 2012 CAPP forecast indicates Canadian crude oil production will rise from three million barrels per day (mmb/d) in 2011 to 5.6 mmb/d in 2025. This year’s forecast is extended by five years and as a result, incremental oil sands projects increase the total oil production forecast to 6.2 mmb/d in 2030, a continuation of the trends highlighted in last year’s CAPP forecast.

“It’s good news for all Canadians because responsible development of this secure, reliable energy source creates jobs across Canada, increased revenue for governments through higher royalty and tax payments, and additional investment in a wide range of businesses throughout the country,” Stringham said.

The growing oil supply is aimed at markets in Eastern Canada, which currently imports more than half its oil from offshore foreign suppliers, traditional and new markets in the United States (displacing imports from less secure foreign sources) and growing markets in Asia.

Stronger growth in both conventional oil and oil sands supply means tighter availability of pipeline capacity in the next few years and an increased urgency for timely expansions and new capacity to markets. New pipelines are now under way and other transportation projects, including pipelines and rail, are proposed to connect the growing oil supply with consumers.

Timely regulatory decisions on new upstream development and infrastructure projects will enhance Canada’s international competitiveness in attracting the investment needed to support this production growth and realize market opportunities, benefitting all Canadians.

The full report is available at

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