2011 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook

abarrelfullabarrelfull wrote on 03 Jun 2011 09:11
Tags: canada upstream

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Oil sands growth and new production from existing conventional oil reserves will drive Canadian crude oil production to about 4.7 million barrels per day by 2025 according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

“CAPP’s 2011 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Pipeline Outlook reaffirms the trend of rising Canadian oil production over the next 15 years,” said Greg Stringham, vice-president of markets and oil sands. “Expanding access to existing markets in the U.S. and diversifying into Asian markets are important to enable this production growth and to ensure Canadian producers receive competitive prices for their products.”

Technological innovation continues to play a vital role in the growth of conventional oil production and oil sands, helping ensure responsible production of Canada’s extensive and diverse oil resources.

Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast* (million b/d)

header 2010 Actual 2011 2015 2020 2025
Oil Sands 1.5 1.6 2.2 3.0 3.7
Conventional 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7
Pentanes/Condensate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Offshore 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Total Canadian Crude Oil Production 2.8 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.7

“Continuous technological innovation in Canada’s oil and gas industry enables us to increase production and improve environmental performance, reducing North America’s dependency on foreign crudes,” said Stringham.

While the economic downturn in 2009 saw many oil sands projects deferred, an improved investment climate, more robust commodity prices and market demand for Canadian crude provided the stimulus for several projects to return to active development in 2010. This trend continues in 2011. Some companies are actively developing oil sands project phases previously placed on hold and investor interest in new projects also continues to increase.

Meanwhile, application of new technology has enabled resurgence in production of conventional oil from tight (low permeability) reservoirs.

“New technology enables industry to produce oil from formerly uneconomic conventional reserves, creating growth in conventional production early in the forecast period. This is a significant departure from the declining trend in conventional oil production we’ve seen over the last decade,” said Stringham.

CAPP’s forecast is based on its annual survey of producers to determine planned production of oil sands, conventional and offshore crude oil through 2025. CAPP used this data along with other inputs from producer companies to illustrate production trends.

The forecast also breaks out oil sands production by extraction method (mining and drilling) and tracks the amount of domestic upgrading. In 2010, 47 per cent of raw bitumen was derived from in situ projects and 53 per cent from mining operations. Starting in 2016, production from in situ projects will account for the majority of Canadian oil sands production.
The full report is available at www.capp.ca/forecast.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents companies, large and small, that explore for, develop and produce natural gas and crude oil throughout Canada. CAPP’s member companies produce more than 90 per cent of Canada’s natural gas and crude oil. CAPP's associate members provide a wide range of services that support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry. Together CAPP's members and associate members are an important part of a national industry with revenues of about $100 billion-a-year. CAPP’s mission is to enhance the economic sustainability of the Canadian upstream petroleum industry in a safe and environmentally and socially responsible manner, through constructive engagement and communication with governments, the public and stakeholders in the communities in which we operate.

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